We Get Things Wrong Sometimes

Let’s Inspect The Damage

THE WRONG HOLIDAY WISHLIST

​​Before diving head first into everything we got wrong, it appears we also missed the mark on this year’s holiday wishlist. We’ll let you guess which team members each of these belong to.

All Culture Pilot Wants for the Holidays This Year (wrong answers only) is… To fill the house with more stuff, because the more clutter, the better.

While we’re ignoring Marie Kondo, we’d love more ways to access entertainment. Ideally with more subscriptions and more ads. We could also use a new media format. We’ve got records, cassettes, CDs, MP3s, VHS, DVD, Blueray and streaming services. Can we add another duplicate format to collect? Ideally paired with a brand-new, really, really expensive device that only plays that format.

For when the internet is out, a Guy Fieri cookbook. And some Garth Brooks tickets to get out of the house. Staying awake for a full week without sleep is high on the list. And since we’re awake, more Google, Alexa, and Siri to talk to. Just more talking devices everywhere we breathe. Bonus points if we can bundle all that with cramps, disappointment, a little more debt, and some fresh inflation.

Because we want less of things too. Less flexibility. Less money. Far less certainty. Less fresh air. Less time to relax. Less vacation. Oh, but a stronger urge to fake our own deaths and move to Paraguay.

And if all goes well, our biggest wish of all: That somebody… anybody… will please pay attention to artificial intelligence. It has real promise. It could be the next Second Life or MySpace if researchers, investors, corporations, and entrepreneurs would quit running back to Excel and Google. All we’re saying is: Give AI a chance.

Now back to what’s really real…

WHAT WE GOT WRONG

Each year, Culture Pilot assembles a short Trends Forecast to study our potential future. Have a look back at the last few editions from the end of 2024, 2023, 2022, and 2021.

Forecasts are only useful if they’re revisited so let’s get to it. Because even the times when we’re directionally right, the details may not always land. Some of our predictions held. Some didn’t. The misses are instructive for what comes next. 

Here is the reality that came to be…

AI Literacy Is Lagging Behind Adoption

At the end of 2022 and 2023, we predicted that widespread access to AI tools would be followed closely by widespread understanding. In reality, there was faster adoption than expected, but slower literacy than hoped. By mid-2024, more than half of U.S. adults reported using generative AI tools in some capacity. But organizations struggled to define best practices, schools debated bans versus integration, and many companies quietly acknowledged that usage had outpaced comprehension and SOPs.

The gap between using AI and thinking critically with it became one of this year’s defining tensions.

Remote Work Didn’t Settle

At the end of 2021, we predicted remote and hybrid work would continue to normalize into a cleaner equilibrium.

In reality, broad acceptance continues to face trust issues. We’ve come to expect more flexibility, but policies vary widely. Many companies recommitted to hybrid models, others quietly reversed course, and many stalled in between, citing concerns over productivity, culture, and of course... control. But public sentiment appears not to be changing.

This debate continues to splinter while Culture Pilot looks over our shoulders at the past 11 years in the cloud.

Consumer Trust Didn’t Rebound the Way We Expected

At the end of 2023, we predicted that growing awareness of fake reviews, automated content, and degraded customer service would force a meaningful course correction. More transparency. Clearer signals. Better guardrails.

In reality, we tolerated but didn’t necessarily reform. Consumers became more skeptical, rightly so. Fake reviews persisted. Automated customer service expanded, some of which improved. And while platforms acknowledged the problem publicly, and the FTC issued a policy preventing companies from paying for reviews or generating fake testimonials, the experience of figuring out what or who to trust increasingly fell to users themselves.

As of 2025, society is still grasping at what to do while regulations continue to fall short.

Fatigue Changed Sentiment But Did Less To Behavior

At the end of 2023, we touched on subscription fatigue, algorithm fatigue, choice fatigue, questionable news fatigue… and we expected more decisive shifts in behavior.

Instead, fatigue became ambient. People felt overwhelmed, but adapted. They complained, canceled subscriptions, or migrated subscriptions between networks. And we all grew more cynical while trying to make the best of the same systems. Convenience is still winning, even as confidence may have declined.

Fatigue does not appear to be slowing down after all. It’s becoming a part of the cultural zeitgeist. If one behaviour signal has changed, it’s that people of all ages are moving away from obtaining news from online sources, and others from anywhere at all.

Common Threads

Looking back, when we zoom out on all of this, the pace and unevenness of human response is harder to predict than the technology itself. 

Technology may have headed in the direction we thought. People on the other hand… we are so unpredictable. Even when things feel ready “on paper” and ready to roll out for testing, new tools and tech will always arrive before the new norms they create. 

And that’s where we try our damndest to pay attention.

Stay tuned for the next forecast, coming soon.